Demographic processes are the main forces that change population over time. The three core processes are fertility (births), mortality (deaths) and migration. In this topic we focus on fertility, mortality and natural increase (births minus deaths). Businesses study these indicators because they affect market size, demand for products and services, workforce availability and long-term planning.
Fertility refers to actual child-bearing performance of a population (the number of births occurring). It is different from fecundity, which means the biological capacity to reproduce.
Births per 1000 women of reproductive age (usually 15–49 years).
Average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if age-specific fertility rates remain constant.
Note: In exams, you can write “CBR, GFR, TFR” with short meaning; exact advanced formulas are not always required at this level.
Mortality refers to the occurrence of deaths in a population. Mortality levels reflect health conditions, nutrition, sanitation, medical facilities and living standards.
Number of deaths of infants (under 1 year) per 1000 live births in a year.
Average number of years a person is expected to live, given current mortality conditions.
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Determinants of fertility include:
(Any three determinants like income, urbanization and cultural norms can be written.)
Determinants of mortality include:
(Any three determinants can be written.)
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Demographic processes are the main forces that change population over time. The three core processes are fertility (births), mortality (deaths) and migration. In this topic we focus on fertility, mortality and natural increase (births minus deaths). Businesses study these indicators because they affect market size, demand for products and services, workforce availability and long-term planning.
Fertility refers to actual child-bearing performance of a population (the number of births occurring). It is different from fecundity, which means the biological capacity to reproduce.
Births per 1000 women of reproductive age (usually 15–49 years).
Average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime if age-specific fertility rates remain constant.
Note: In exams, you can write “CBR, GFR, TFR” with short meaning; exact advanced formulas are not always required at this level.
Mortality refers to the occurrence of deaths in a population. Mortality levels reflect health conditions, nutrition, sanitation, medical facilities and living standards.
Number of deaths of infants (under 1 year) per 1000 live births in a year.
Average number of years a person is expected to live, given current mortality conditions.
Natural increase is the growth of population due to births and deaths only (excluding migration).
Basic idea: As a rate (concept):
Crude rates use total population; refined rates focus on relevant groups (e.g., GFR focuses on women 15–49).
Two places can have same CDR but different age composition. Older populations naturally have more deaths.
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Fertility refers to the actual child-bearing performance of a population, that is, the number of live births occurring in a given period. It is an important demographic process because it directly affects the size of the future population and the future consumer base. Fertility should not be confused with fecundity, which is the biological capacity to reproduce.
Fertility is influenced by many determinants. One important determinant is age at marriage and timing of childbearing. When marriage is early, the reproductive period is longer and fertility tends to be higher.
Education, especially women’s education, is another major factor. Education increases awareness, delays marriage, improves decision-making and encourages smaller family norms.
Economic factors also matter. When cost of living, education expenses and housing costs rise, families may prefer fewer children. Urbanization and modernization generally reduce fertility because of changed lifestyles and career aspirations.
Availability of family planning and healthcare services also reduces fertility by enabling couples to plan and space births. Cultural and religious norms and preference for children can influence desired family size.
Thus, fertility is a multi-factor phenomenon and its determinants must be understood for both social planning and business forecasting of future markets.